I am a student of history, most especially ancient history. There was an Oliver Stone interview/documentary with Vladimir Putin (2017) in which I could not help but notice that the Russian Premiere was incredibly well read. He has read his Homer, and understands the Western Intellectual Tradition. This is not without its dangers. As Jack Weatherford pointed out in his book Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World (2004), once the Uyghurs had taught the Mongols how to read and write, and translators were brought in, Genghis Khan made a close study of Sun Tzu's Art of War and evolved upon its principles, ousting its apparent canonical status by providing workarounds and oblique tactics that both adopted its more effective elements, and also, more importantly, anticipated its rigid strategy, adapting to his enemy's known modus operandi.
As a scholar of history I feel that several important points should be understood by the West, when defending against the immense weight and power of the Russian invasion (which can hopefully be dialled down, but that seems unlikely, somehow). I translated this in April 2020, which is not without its ripples in the psitronic wavefront (prophecy):
...Asia’s height of power: demolished,
had fallen down, surpassing the work of the heavenly gods;
and whoever takes up his arms comes to the cool waters,
drinking from the seven mouthed river Don branching out,
and first following a newborn day joins the tepid
Tigris, in its ruddy tributary, and looking out for its neighbours,
the nomad Scythians strike a death blow to the shores
of the Black Sea with a destitute band that’s cut down
by the sword. Pergamum had thrown itself on to it. Behold!
Its towering ornaments, built up walls fall to the ground,
defences burnt down: flames surround the palace, and all
the homes of Assaracus smouldering far and wide.
A flame does not allow the greedy hands of victory,
burning Troy is ravaged. Heaven doesn’t suffer covered
with black smoke, as a thick cloud of it is rising upwards,
the ashes of the Trojan dead, filthy in daytime.
The greedy victor stands in rage and pliant Ilium
is gauged by the eyes as a desert unforgiven.
Seneca, Trojan Women ll.6-24 (second century C.E.)
Vladimir Putin too, as well as being incredibly well read, is also a keen historian. There is a precedent for invasion, historically, from a not unstudied premiere writing an academic essay on the historic links between Ukraine and Russie (Putin, 2021 [found here]). Seemingly it is standard reading for troops on the front line (Wasielewski and Jones, 2022 [found here]).
So what's my reaction? Well, the first thing I did was read Sun Tzu's The Art of War (孫子兵法), thanks to working for a Chinese company last year, I could even pick out the odd word in Chinese, but for the most part read Lionel Giles' translation (1910 [found here]).
The next thing I did was read Frontinus' Stratagems, in Latin, and indeed Polynaeus' Stratagies (albeit in translation, him writing in Ancient Greek [found here] trans. R. Shepherd, 1793).
Yet this is not enough. I got to thinking about General 'Stormin' Norman Schwarzkopf's effacious invasion of Iraq, Operation Desert Storm, and his use of the tactics by the Carthaginians during Battle of Cannae (which can be found here) in 216 B.C.E.
Never mind classics, and Stormin' Norman's tactics are not so effective in an era of smartphones and greater satellite access to the common man. Alas, what is there? Well I got to thinking about how the Afghanis managed to overthrow one of the world's greatest superpowers (if not the greatest superpower, with all its allies and great machinations) through guerrilla warfare, and how the Ukranians (God bless them) might stand up to this Russian Bear in the face of adversity (more on this can be found here; there is also an important review of Russia's potential avenues of approach here).
Being a historian, I read a lot (and I mean a lot) and one book I read, which is an excellent book by the way, discusses a similar situation. I quote:
"IRA tactics shifted from attacks on individual [soldiers]... and raids on... barracks to ambushes against army... patrols conducted by 'flying columns' - groups of about twenty five armed men [nearly 'platoon' strength] on full-time active duty , supported by local IRA companies. This was the ideal form of offensive and defensive warfare. By trial and error, according to one historian, 'the IRA had stumbled on the type of warfare... extensively copied since... Latin America to Vietnam, in which the advantage of a committed and motivated force, local knowledge and support outweighs the numerical superiority and vast armed resources of the occupying force.' Its impact can be seen in the casualty figures." (McMahon, 2008, p.39 [British Spies and Irish Rebels: British Intelligence and Ireland 1916-1945].
There is a lot more to it than that: sensitive political policies, overt and covert intelligence, political and military intelligence, it's quite a deep subject. But one thing is for sure, if the Ukranians fight this war (which will probably happen, sadly, this year, or the next) as the Afghans or the IRA did, they will be assured of victory, despite all the advantages which the invading force has.
There is also another important point, that the ancients, particularly the Mongols, but also many ancient empires, didn't actually have the moral foundations and international laws against genocide or war crimes, so modern democracies have a more sensitive framework and operate in a more compassionate manner. Equally, one cannot expect dictatorships like China, Russia and North Korea (or even Afghanistan) to operate under similar principles or even respect the rule of law (China ignoring the UN ruling over the sea boundaries in the South China Sea is a good example of this system breaking down). It is not right, it is not correct, but it is the way it actually is.
Max.
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