We've seen it coming, for over a month now. (Well, maybe more than that). Our Prime Minister - a learned intellectual, not at all ignorant of history - stated that history will perceive Vlad the Invader in a negative light. This may be true, in terms of liberal democracy at least, with humanitarian values and that weighs the cost of innocent life most heavily, as life is itself is sacred. However, I, respectfully disagree.
Take a look at the new Romans (the Americans) and their allies in Afghanistan (which was pointed out by a Kremlin spokesman). How can the West bandy about this term 'international law' when the Americans and their allies did not 'go the UN route' in the (second) invasion of Iraq? In terms of history, and historians, especially military historians, I foresee that totalitarian states like Russia and China, during this period of history, will be seen as more successful than Western liberal democracies. This overlooks important matters such as human rights or the right to elect a leader or the cost of human life. That is, if Russia wins the war in Ukraine (which it may or may not do - the odds seem more heavily stacked in their favour, much like the Americans and their allies were in Afghanistan...)
It is not correct that the most draconian, the most corrupt, and the least democratic regimes are the most successful. Yet this is the reality. Morally, the underhand assassinations in Salisbury not so long ago were reprehensible, yet this is the way Vlad the Invader operates. When Putin says that anyone that tries to interfere with his invasion of Ukraine will face immediate consequences the likes of which no one has ever seen before in the history of mankind, that doesn't mean nothing. Russian spies operate ruthlessly. The Zircon hypersonic missile is a very dangerous weapon indeed. The sheer amount of military hardware: SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defences), air superiority, overwhelming naval fleets and a massive advantage in terms of tanks and troops, means that the odds are stacked in Russia's favour. Yet this does not mean that there is no hope for Ukraine. What happened in Afghanistan, what happened in Ireland in the first half of the twentieth century, are examples of what is possible when a huge overbearing imperial power looms heavily over a comparatively small, less well armed but resolutely determined populace, willing to resist. Even the French Resistance is a good example of what is possible when people have that iron will to not accept submission by a foreign invader.
If history teaches us anything, what will likely happen is that the Russians (and troops from Belarus) will move in and capture strategic points in and around the country (major cities, key ports, airfields etc.) then will come a period of the resistance being in hiding. This will be done in the hinterland, the countryside, under the guise of people going about their business. That is, for people that are not completely scared out of their wits by the onslaught and flee. This could very well be the dawn of a long protracted struggle (I predict ten years, from the omens and auspices). Consider:
...There is better proof than in a fragile place,
where the proud should stand. Asia’s height of power: demolished,
had fallen down, surpassing the work of the heavenly gods;
and whoever takes up his arms comes to the cool waters,
drinking from the seven mouthed river Don branching out,
and first following a newborn day joins the tepid
Tigris, in its ruddy tributary, and looking out for its neighbours,
the nomad Scythians strike a death blow to the shores
of the Black Sea with a destitute band that’s cut down
by the sword. Pergamum had thrown itself on to it. Behold!
Its towering ornaments, built up walls fall to the ground,
defences burnt down: flames surround the palace, and all
the homes of Assaracus smouldering far and wide.
A flame does not allow the greedy hands of victory,
burning Troy is ravaged. Heaven doesn’t suffer covered
with black smoke, as a thick cloud of it is rising upwards,
the ashes of the Trojan dead, filthy in daytime.
The greedy victor stands in rage and pliant Ilium
is gauged by the eyes as a desert unforgiven,
and in ten years also dreading the overthrown
and vanquished...
Seneca, Troades lines 5-25. Written mid first century (translated by Maxwell Lewis Latham, April 2020).
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