I was in that... place again with those... people, but my problems seem rather small fry compared to what is going on in the Ukraine.
This past week has been... worrying, to say the least. First of all you have Vladimir threatening to set off nukes, then his forces fire at the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, now he says that the sanctions imposed are akin to an act of war (by NATO). There is also the growing humanitarian crisis, which is again, very worrying. The innocent civilians in Mariupol, without power, food, in the middle of winter, trying to flee are fired upon by Russian troops while trying to escape via a prearranged humanitarian corridor. This shows the value of Vladimir's word: worthless. The same thing happened in Crimea, February 2014: the Russians said they would not invade, then they invaded.
Equally, not abiding by agreements or being duplicitous and deceptive is not the same as backing up words with force, which is what has happened so far. Everything Vladimir has said so far, he has done (not when negotiating, but dictating, which is what dictators do: they cannot negotiate, only bully people into bending to their will via coercion and heavy handed gunboat 'diplomacy').
I fear, from what Vladimir has said and done so far, NATO will inevitably be drawn into conflict, whether NATO wants to or not. It's his playing field, his game, by his rules. I remember watching The Putin Interviews by Oliver Stone when they were first aired. At the time I was massively into classical studies (well, I still am) and the fact that Vladimir had read his Homer, meant my estimation of him soared. I respected him. Then the poisoning happened in Salisbury, and I suddenly began to see that this person is ruthless.
There is a colleague I have at work that reckons that the SS, under Hitler, that would not follow orders, would have their families intimidated and sometimes killed, if they did not comply. This person is actually descended from someone that was in the SS. I do not know if Vladimir would resort to such tactics, but from what I have read and seen, it seems that this may not be beyond him. Certainly, a key political opponent, Boris Nemetsov, being shot dead right outside the Kremlin in 2015 suggests that any and all options are not off the table when it comes to Vladimir. One does not stand in his way, lest one may face grave consequences. I should not even write this, really, because I could end up with drinking some polonium tea or touch a novichok coated door handle. Yet things have come so far now that I can see this whole thing escalating way out of control.
In truth, it already has. Firing at Europe's largest nuclear power plant? Mowing down innocent civilians after having agreed to give them safe passage?
Geopolitically, the whole thing is a tinderbox next to a dry forest at the height of summer. It could spark a conflict that may bring about the end of all countries. This is why NATO has not (yet) formally joined the conflict. So, if today's statement by Vladimir, that these sanctions are akin to an act of war, and this does bring NATO into the war, then my life is not worth much. I am not some big shot 1%er, nor am I some famous movie star or noble judge. I'm the guy that scrapes the crap out of pots in a kitchen, that holds a master's degree, with a boss that is less than half my age. I am a nobody. I'm no soldier, I'm no politician, I'm no celebrity. The sum of my life amounts to zero. Education? No education? It doesn't make any difference in Dark Age Britain. Therefore, I am not afraid to speak out (because, I don't actually care whether I live or I die, because I have nothing to live for - except my daughter, and she doesn't speak often).
The head of the snake needs to be cut off, soon, because if it is not, that's the entire human race extinct, most likely.
I am not alone in this view. I have heard it said before, by more than one person, and indeed read as much in a newspaper just the other day. Another world war would be devastating. The Russians have already said that if anybody clobbers them, they will nuke the entire world. This is rather like a child that didn't get what he or she wanted, so he or she throws a temper tantrum and smashes up everything around him or her.
I am not for war, as it would be very dangerous, imperilling the whole human race. Yet soon, I think you will find, that the world's diplomatic options will run very short, and the world will be engulfed in conflict.
I have read a few articles about the strength of the world's biggest armed forces (notably America and Russia each being huge) and there are some surprisingly large forces in several NATO countries: Spain and Turkey being among the biggest. France is quite well prepared, as are a number of other countries. Even discounting the size of the forces of the potential belligerents, an Irishman once said to me, "The British Army has never been a very large army, but it is a very efficient army." (This is nonsense of course, because the British Army at the end of the 19th century was absolutely enormous: he may have been speaking of during his lifetime, which would mean the statement is true). Notwithstanding other potential allies of Russia, notably North Korea, maybe even China (with whom Russia signed a mutual protection pact back in the 1990s), the Allies (America, Europe, NATO and all willing states) would probably give Russia some pretty stiff resistance. Countries like Sweden (that have an excellent military, and excel at a number of technological advancements, particularly in avionics and naval warfare - SAAB and indeed an invisible submarine) and Finland will rapidly be fast tracked into NATO (they would have to be, or fall, as Ukraine might). This would enrage Vladimir.
I guess the point is, is that unless NATO and the West get their act together, pronto, they may be faced with an impending crisis which would make the Ukrainian war seem like a day at nursery school.
Look at this report here. On the one hand, these journalists are laudable for reporting on the conflict. On the other hand, going into a warzone unarmed, to my mind at least, is the height of folly. I do not enter a desert with no water. I do not climb across a mountain without a good map and a compass (and water). Likewise, to enter a warzone without any means of defending oneself is the height of stupidity.
If the Russian military will mow down civilians and shoot at journalists, what do you think they will do with people actually trying to stop them? The Russians do not play fairly. They do not consider humanitarian elements or recognise international laws or treaties. They understand only one thing: strength.
Max.
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