The Ukraine war (recent events and analysis)

It's difficult to see through the propaganda, on both sides. I remember one analyst (among the myriad armchair 'generals' that have sprung to life since the start of this conflict, just like the myriad 'experts' on virology and epidemiology [commentators] that seemed to spring up at the start of the neo-plague pandemic) did actually say something quite important: that no one really knows what's going on on the ground in Ukraine. Even journalists on the front line only get a glimpse, quite often of the aftermath of the conflict, and very few of them actually speak Ukrainian. In any case, news trickles through. I have been following the events closely, and there are a couple of points which are noteworthy of comment.

Just over four days ago, it was alleged that a Russian driving a tank ran over his commander after the Russians took heavy losses. Equally, the source was anecdotal, a FaceBook post, and partisan, from the Ukrainian side.

Today it is reported that Russian generals are too afraid to tell their commander in chief about just how the war is actually going. It is thought that the President of Russia is surrounded by 'yes men'. Equally, again, the source is a bunch of Western analysts, so one wonders just how they might know this, or whether or not it is speculation instead of solid intelligence.

There was also speculation about the general in charge of the invasion, Russia's Minister for Defence. He wasn't seen in public since March the 11th, but recently resurfaced last Tuesday (March the 29th). It is now alleged that he may be holed up in a bunker some 1,000 miles from Moscow, according to flight records.

All this conjures up imagery about how difficult it may be to be a general in the Russian army (not that these invaders deserve much pity). Imagine, for a moment, this might be how it went down.

Russian General [iPhone reads 'Incoming call from Vlad the Invader'].

Vlad: General, what is the situation?

General [tries to remove his legs from underneath the tank]: Fine, fine. The invasion is going according to plan.

Vlad: I told you never to say that.

General: Say what, Premiere?

Vlad: It is a 'special military operation', not an invasion.

You get the drift.

In all seriousness though, these are very tricky times. The whole thing is a tinderbox in a dry wood forest, a delicate tightrope walk of a situation. There is the threat of nuclear war, if not Cold War II then World War III.

If we look at recent events in history, it wasn't until the 1st of May 2003 that the Allies led by the U.S. declared victory in the war in Afghanistan. This is after the invasion began on the 8th of October, 2001, a period of one year and seven months. It should be remembered, though, that the 9th of December, 2001 was when Khandahar fell, so that debacle took only two months.

It took Hitler just over one month to annex Poland (from the 1st of September to the 6th of October, 1939).

The Ukrainian war has only been going on for about 5 weeks now, from the 24th of February to today, the 30th of March. The strategic circumstances, landscapes (both the geo-political landscape and the actual terrain) are very different in this conflict to the Afghan War, if not Hitler's invasion of Poland - though much has changed since 1939.

My prediction at the start of this war turned out to be flat wrong (it is best if one acknowledge's one's own mistakes, and is honest with oneself), that the cities would be captured then a guerilla war would be fought in the countryside. This may yet still happen, but the Ukrainians are putting up pretty fierce resistance, thankfully. The Russians have many important advantages and outweigh the Ukrainians in many areas: air superiority, missiles, sheer amount of fuel, troops and military hardware. Yet the Russians didn't count on one thing: the willingness of a people of a country to defend their homeland. It's perhaps cliché, but I recall a favourite movie of mine (Robin Hood) when Kevin Costner says, "One free man defending his home is worth ten hired soldiers."